Cameron Newton's NFL Prospects: Are We Sure He Is Even That Good?
There is no denying that former Auburn quarterback Cameron Newton turned in a fantastic 2010 college football season, one well deserving of a Heisman Trophy. In his 14 games this season, Newton completed 66.1 percent of his passes, gained an extraordinary 10.2 yards per pass attempt, and threw 30 touchdown passes (10.7 touchdown percentage) to only seven interceptions (2.5 interception percentage). For good measure, Newton also had 264 rush attempts for 1,473 rush yards and a 5.6 yards per rush average that is made more impressive when one remembers that sacks in college count against a quarterback's rush totals.
Newton's fine quarterback play was the main reason why Auburn's offense was so incredibly dominant this season and ended up winning the BCS title. However, one great season in college football is never good enough for anyone to definitively say a quarterback will be a good pro because it fails to eliminate question marks about a player's true talent.
Having one excellent season as a college quarterback is no great feat as plenty of quarterbacks before Newton have done it and most have gone on to either fade into football obscurity or football mediocrity.
Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy in 2009, his first season as Alabama's primary quarterback, which is attempting the most passes or throwing the most passing yards for his team, completed 60.2 percent of his passes, gained 7.7 yards per pass attempt, and threw 17 touchdowns (5.2 touchdown percentage) to four interceptions (1.2 interception percentage). Alabama won a BCS title with McElroy as a quarterback, but his first season as a starter was nothing extraordinary.
Just this past season, however, McElroy improved dramatically, completing 70.9 percent of his passes, gaining 9.5 yards per pass attempt, and throwing 20 touchdowns (6.4 touchdown percentage) to five interceptions (1.6 interception percentage). McElroy's season was every bit as great as Newton's, and yet no one is talking about him as a top quarterback prospect because there is no certainty about which season is more representative of his ability. McElroy is just one quarterback who put together a great season.
Southern Methodist sophomore quarterback Kyle Padron exploded on the college football scene last season as a freshman. Over the last seven games of 2009, Padron completed 67.2 percent of his passes, gained 9.6 yards per pass attempt, and threw 10 touchdowns (5.0 touchdown percentage) to 4 interceptions (2.0 interception percentage).
In the season that just ended, Padron's numbers fell off precipitously, and he completed only 59.4 percent of his passes, gained just 7.5 yards per pass attempt, and threw 31 touchdowns (6.1 touchdown percentage) to 14 interceptions (2.8 interception percentage). Think how foolish it would have been if after Padron's freshman campaign, which was every bit as good as Newton's 2010 season, we would have anointed him as a top quarterback prospect. Padron's one excellent season now does not seem indicative of his true talent.
Current Carolina Panthers quarterback and former Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen also had one excellent college football season. In his junior year, which turned out to be his last collegiate season, Clausen completed 68.0 percent of his passes, gained 8.8 yards per pass attempt, and threw 28 touchdowns (6.6 touchdown percentage) to four interceptions (.9 interception percentage).
Clausen's extremely efficient junior season came out of nowhere based on the fact he was a below average to average passer in his other two seasons at Notre Dame. His freshman season, in games as Notre Dame's primary quarterback, Clausen completed 58.0 percent of his passes, gained a pathetic 5.3 yards per pass attempt, and threw seven touchdown passes (5.5 touchdown percentage) to four interceptions (3.1 interception percentage).
Clausen's sophomore effort was little better as he completed 60.9 percent of his passes, gained 7.2 yards per pass attempt, and threw 25 touchdowns (5.7 touchdown percentage) to 17 interceptions (3.9 interception percentage).
Before Clausen's excellent junior season, he had spent more time being a mediocre quarterback, but that still did not keep him from being great for one magical season.
Despite Clausen's impressive junior season at Notre Dame, based on his play this season for the Panthers, when it looked most of the times as if he had never played quarterback before in his life, it is obvious Clausen has more mediocrity in him than excellence.
Former Oakland Raiders quarterback and former LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell, who many consider as the biggest draft bust in NFL history although he never should have been selected so highly in the first place, also had one great season as a college football quarterback. His junior season was one in which he completed 67.8 percent of his passes, gained 9.2 yards per pass attempt, and threw 28 touchdowns (8.2 touchdown percentage) to eight interceptions (2.3 interception percentage). Again, that season is comparable to Newton's 2010 year.
Russell, however, was not nearly so good in his other two seasons as LSU's primary quarterback. In his freshman season, Russell was pretty awful, as he completed a lousy 50.3 percent of his passes, gained 7.5 yards per pass attempt, and threw nine touchdowns (7.0 touchdown percentage) to two interceptions (1.6 interception percentage).
Russell's sophomore season was better than his freshman one, but still not one that even whispered that here is a future star NFL quarterback. In 2005, Russell completed only 60.5 percent of his passes, gained 7.9 yards per pass attempt, and threw 15 touchdowns (4.8 touchdown percentage) to nine interceptions (2.9 interception percentage).
Once again, Russell's college career proves that even a quarterback who is average at best in his other seasons can put it all together for one great season.
Current Philadelphia Eagles quarterback and former University of Houston quarterback Kevin Kolb is another quarterback whose ordinary seasons did not prevent him from having one great year.
Kolb spent the first three seasons of his collegiate career displaying middling accuracy. As a freshman, Kolb completed 60.9 percent of his passes, gained 8.7 yards per pass attempt, and threw 25 touchdowns (7.0 touchdown percentage) to six interceptions (1.7 interception percentage). For his sophomore year, Kolb's completion percentage dropped to 56.1 percent, he gained 7.8 yards per pass attempt, and threw 11 touchdowns (3.1 touchdown percentage) to six interceptions (1.7 interception percentage). As a junior, Kolb completed 60.5 percent of his passes, gained 7.8 yards per pass attempt, and threw 19 touchdowns (4.5 touchdown percentage) to 15 interceptions (3.6 interception percentage).
While none of Kolb's first three college seasons were anything other than average, he still managed to have one great college football season.
If those examples are not enough to convince you of how unimportant having just one great college football season is in determining how good of a quarterback a player really is, ask Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets if they would not both be better off had Sanchez spent another year at USC honing his quarterback craft.
In Sanchez's one year as a starting quarterback in college, he had an extremely effective season, completing 65.8 percent of his passes, gaining 8.8 yards per attempt, and throwing 34 touchdowns (9.3 touchdown percentage) to 10 interceptions (2.7 interception percentage).
Since that year, in his two seasons as the New York Jets starting quarterback, Sanchez has not come within a marathon's worth of miles of matching any of those college statistics for an extended period of time, and has actually been one of the worst passing quarterbacks in the NFL.
If you look at the college careers of the current elite crop of quarterbacks, be it Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, or Drew Brees, you will find quarterbacks who started at least two years in college and put together consistently excellent seasons with no great difference between any two seasons. What you will not find is just one great season with no other seasons of equal production to back it up.
Not only does Newton only have one year of starting experience, but he was only asked to throw 20 passes per game, 280 pass attempts over 14 games, during that one year so he does not even have the experience of truly carrying an offense with his arm; those 280 pass attempts are the epitome of a sample size that is too small to gauge a college quarterback's pro prospects. No NFL team is going to have great success throwing only 20 times a game, which is all Newton is familiar with.
In addition, there were slight negative correlations between Newton's number of pass attempts and his completion percentage (-0.122) and also his number of pass attempts and his yards per pass attempt (-0.208) so there is some evidence that the more times Newton was asked to throw, the worse he got as a quarterback.
For all of his athletic ability, Newton is not special enough that he should not be examined less rigorously as a quarterback simply because he won a Heisman Trophy and a national championship in the same year or because he is 6'6 and has a very strong arm. Under such rigorous examination, the only thing that can surely be said about Newton is no one knows how good a quarterback he really is.
NFL franchises should never draft a quarterback, let alone using a high draft pick on one, based mostly on a player's potential; leave drafting mostly on potential to the NBA. Instead an NFL team should know exactly what kind of quarterback they will be getting. With Newton, that level of certainty is an impossibility, rendering him unworthy of a high draft pick.
Newton's fine quarterback play was the main reason why Auburn's offense was so incredibly dominant this season and ended up winning the BCS title. However, one great season in college football is never good enough for anyone to definitively say a quarterback will be a good pro because it fails to eliminate question marks about a player's true talent.
Having one excellent season as a college quarterback is no great feat as plenty of quarterbacks before Newton have done it and most have gone on to either fade into football obscurity or football mediocrity.
Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy in 2009, his first season as Alabama's primary quarterback, which is attempting the most passes or throwing the most passing yards for his team, completed 60.2 percent of his passes, gained 7.7 yards per pass attempt, and threw 17 touchdowns (5.2 touchdown percentage) to four interceptions (1.2 interception percentage). Alabama won a BCS title with McElroy as a quarterback, but his first season as a starter was nothing extraordinary.
Just this past season, however, McElroy improved dramatically, completing 70.9 percent of his passes, gaining 9.5 yards per pass attempt, and throwing 20 touchdowns (6.4 touchdown percentage) to five interceptions (1.6 interception percentage). McElroy's season was every bit as great as Newton's, and yet no one is talking about him as a top quarterback prospect because there is no certainty about which season is more representative of his ability. McElroy is just one quarterback who put together a great season.
Southern Methodist sophomore quarterback Kyle Padron exploded on the college football scene last season as a freshman. Over the last seven games of 2009, Padron completed 67.2 percent of his passes, gained 9.6 yards per pass attempt, and threw 10 touchdowns (5.0 touchdown percentage) to 4 interceptions (2.0 interception percentage).
In the season that just ended, Padron's numbers fell off precipitously, and he completed only 59.4 percent of his passes, gained just 7.5 yards per pass attempt, and threw 31 touchdowns (6.1 touchdown percentage) to 14 interceptions (2.8 interception percentage). Think how foolish it would have been if after Padron's freshman campaign, which was every bit as good as Newton's 2010 season, we would have anointed him as a top quarterback prospect. Padron's one excellent season now does not seem indicative of his true talent.
Current Carolina Panthers quarterback and former Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen also had one excellent college football season. In his junior year, which turned out to be his last collegiate season, Clausen completed 68.0 percent of his passes, gained 8.8 yards per pass attempt, and threw 28 touchdowns (6.6 touchdown percentage) to four interceptions (.9 interception percentage).
Clausen's extremely efficient junior season came out of nowhere based on the fact he was a below average to average passer in his other two seasons at Notre Dame. His freshman season, in games as Notre Dame's primary quarterback, Clausen completed 58.0 percent of his passes, gained a pathetic 5.3 yards per pass attempt, and threw seven touchdown passes (5.5 touchdown percentage) to four interceptions (3.1 interception percentage).
Clausen's sophomore effort was little better as he completed 60.9 percent of his passes, gained 7.2 yards per pass attempt, and threw 25 touchdowns (5.7 touchdown percentage) to 17 interceptions (3.9 interception percentage).
Before Clausen's excellent junior season, he had spent more time being a mediocre quarterback, but that still did not keep him from being great for one magical season.
Despite Clausen's impressive junior season at Notre Dame, based on his play this season for the Panthers, when it looked most of the times as if he had never played quarterback before in his life, it is obvious Clausen has more mediocrity in him than excellence.
Former Oakland Raiders quarterback and former LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell, who many consider as the biggest draft bust in NFL history although he never should have been selected so highly in the first place, also had one great season as a college football quarterback. His junior season was one in which he completed 67.8 percent of his passes, gained 9.2 yards per pass attempt, and threw 28 touchdowns (8.2 touchdown percentage) to eight interceptions (2.3 interception percentage). Again, that season is comparable to Newton's 2010 year.
Russell, however, was not nearly so good in his other two seasons as LSU's primary quarterback. In his freshman season, Russell was pretty awful, as he completed a lousy 50.3 percent of his passes, gained 7.5 yards per pass attempt, and threw nine touchdowns (7.0 touchdown percentage) to two interceptions (1.6 interception percentage).
Russell's sophomore season was better than his freshman one, but still not one that even whispered that here is a future star NFL quarterback. In 2005, Russell completed only 60.5 percent of his passes, gained 7.9 yards per pass attempt, and threw 15 touchdowns (4.8 touchdown percentage) to nine interceptions (2.9 interception percentage).
Once again, Russell's college career proves that even a quarterback who is average at best in his other seasons can put it all together for one great season.
Current Philadelphia Eagles quarterback and former University of Houston quarterback Kevin Kolb is another quarterback whose ordinary seasons did not prevent him from having one great year.
Kolb spent the first three seasons of his collegiate career displaying middling accuracy. As a freshman, Kolb completed 60.9 percent of his passes, gained 8.7 yards per pass attempt, and threw 25 touchdowns (7.0 touchdown percentage) to six interceptions (1.7 interception percentage). For his sophomore year, Kolb's completion percentage dropped to 56.1 percent, he gained 7.8 yards per pass attempt, and threw 11 touchdowns (3.1 touchdown percentage) to six interceptions (1.7 interception percentage). As a junior, Kolb completed 60.5 percent of his passes, gained 7.8 yards per pass attempt, and threw 19 touchdowns (4.5 touchdown percentage) to 15 interceptions (3.6 interception percentage).
While none of Kolb's first three college seasons were anything other than average, he still managed to have one great college football season.
If those examples are not enough to convince you of how unimportant having just one great college football season is in determining how good of a quarterback a player really is, ask Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets if they would not both be better off had Sanchez spent another year at USC honing his quarterback craft.
In Sanchez's one year as a starting quarterback in college, he had an extremely effective season, completing 65.8 percent of his passes, gaining 8.8 yards per attempt, and throwing 34 touchdowns (9.3 touchdown percentage) to 10 interceptions (2.7 interception percentage).
Since that year, in his two seasons as the New York Jets starting quarterback, Sanchez has not come within a marathon's worth of miles of matching any of those college statistics for an extended period of time, and has actually been one of the worst passing quarterbacks in the NFL.
If you look at the college careers of the current elite crop of quarterbacks, be it Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, or Drew Brees, you will find quarterbacks who started at least two years in college and put together consistently excellent seasons with no great difference between any two seasons. What you will not find is just one great season with no other seasons of equal production to back it up.
Not only does Newton only have one year of starting experience, but he was only asked to throw 20 passes per game, 280 pass attempts over 14 games, during that one year so he does not even have the experience of truly carrying an offense with his arm; those 280 pass attempts are the epitome of a sample size that is too small to gauge a college quarterback's pro prospects. No NFL team is going to have great success throwing only 20 times a game, which is all Newton is familiar with.
In addition, there were slight negative correlations between Newton's number of pass attempts and his completion percentage (-0.122) and also his number of pass attempts and his yards per pass attempt (-0.208) so there is some evidence that the more times Newton was asked to throw, the worse he got as a quarterback.
For all of his athletic ability, Newton is not special enough that he should not be examined less rigorously as a quarterback simply because he won a Heisman Trophy and a national championship in the same year or because he is 6'6 and has a very strong arm. Under such rigorous examination, the only thing that can surely be said about Newton is no one knows how good a quarterback he really is.
NFL franchises should never draft a quarterback, let alone using a high draft pick on one, based mostly on a player's potential; leave drafting mostly on potential to the NBA. Instead an NFL team should know exactly what kind of quarterback they will be getting. With Newton, that level of certainty is an impossibility, rendering him unworthy of a high draft pick.
Labels: Auburn Football, Cameron Newton, College Football, Greg McElroy, Jamarcus Russell, Jimmy Clausen, Kevin Kolb, Kyle Padron
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