Do Managers Properly Use Their Relievers? (Pt. II)
As promised, I have updated my findings on how well managers use their relievers and if they use their best relievers in the highest leverage situations. Instead of including every single reliever, I only included relievers who had pitched at least ten innings this season.
With the added relievers, there is a small amount of good news about the overall correlations. The correlation between WXRL and Leverage increased from .499 to .522 and the correlation between WXRL and the opposing batters' season WOBA increased from -.052 to .135. While there was an increase in both correlations, neither increase was high enough to get excited about. Also, neither inspires confidence in me that managers really care about shifting their bullpen around after the games start. Yes, there are some teams who may demote a closer, but no evidence suggests that the majority of managers understand how to utilize their bullpens. Since baseball is now in an era where bullpens are used more than they ever have been, this is pretty troubling.
Unfortunately, the updated data did not treat the single teams as well. When I looked at just five relievers for teams, there were nine teams with a correlation between WXRL and Leverage over .800. With the added pitchers, there were only five teams that matched that level of success: Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets, and San Diego Padres.
Still leading the way are the San Diego Padres. Once again, you can chalk this up to luck if you want and say that it will even itself out over the course of the season, but let's discuss the San Diego Padres a little further. Their closer, Trevor Hoffman, has the higest leverage score (2.48) of any reliever in the majors, meaning the Padres have used him only when the game has mattered the most. Their second-best reliever has a leverage score of 1.95, which is higher than several closers for other ballclubs. Without a question, the Padres understand how to use a bullpen.
However, the Padres are not the only team that uses their relievers well. The New York Mets and the Oakland Athletics also do a good job.
With the added relievers, there is a small amount of good news about the overall correlations. The correlation between WXRL and Leverage increased from .499 to .522 and the correlation between WXRL and the opposing batters' season WOBA increased from -.052 to .135. While there was an increase in both correlations, neither increase was high enough to get excited about. Also, neither inspires confidence in me that managers really care about shifting their bullpen around after the games start. Yes, there are some teams who may demote a closer, but no evidence suggests that the majority of managers understand how to utilize their bullpens. Since baseball is now in an era where bullpens are used more than they ever have been, this is pretty troubling.
Unfortunately, the updated data did not treat the single teams as well. When I looked at just five relievers for teams, there were nine teams with a correlation between WXRL and Leverage over .800. With the added pitchers, there were only five teams that matched that level of success: Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets, and San Diego Padres.
Still leading the way are the San Diego Padres. Once again, you can chalk this up to luck if you want and say that it will even itself out over the course of the season, but let's discuss the San Diego Padres a little further. Their closer, Trevor Hoffman, has the higest leverage score (2.48) of any reliever in the majors, meaning the Padres have used him only when the game has mattered the most. Their second-best reliever has a leverage score of 1.95, which is higher than several closers for other ballclubs. Without a question, the Padres understand how to use a bullpen.
However, the Padres are not the only team that uses their relievers well. The New York Mets and the Oakland Athletics also do a good job.
posted by David at
10:20 PM
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