LSU's Running Backs

Watching as much football as I do, I am continually baffled by some of the decisions made by head coaches: why they punt as much as they do instead of going for it more on fourth down, why they play certain quarterbacks, why they give away valuable yards of field position with squib kickoffs and the like, and for the purposes of this article, why LSU head coach Les Miles has given running back Jacob Hester almost three times as many carries as the next most used running back, Keiland Williams. My eyes have deduced that Hester is a capable running back, but they have also informed me that LSU has a stable of running backs who if given more carries would give LSU's rushing attack an explosive boost.

Sifting through LSU's play-by-play data turned up surprising info in some instances and confirmed my original assumptions about the running backs that play in Baton Rouge and went a long way in my determining whether or not Jacob Hester deserves his lion's share of the carries. The answer is no and that LSU would benefit from giving other running backs more carries. Although Hester never fumbles the ball, he is not even the most consistent running back on the team out of the backs who have at least twenty carries, having a success rate higher than only two of the seven players who meet my criterion (Ryan Perrilloux and Trindon Holliday). That person is Charles Scott, who has a success rate of 63.6%, but even Scott is not the best running back on LSU's roster. Keiland Williams carries that distinction with a 61.4% success rate, averaging 7.0 extra yards per successful run, and coming up an average of 3.6 yards short on failed runs.

Not only does Hester come up short in success rate, but he is unable to break long runs. Trindon Holliday averages the highest number of extra yards per successful run (7.6), but that achievement is diminished by the fact when he fails to have a successful run, he does so by an average of 5.2 yards even though that is not entirely his fault as I will elucidate shortly. Returning to Hester, he is tied with quarterback Matt Flynn as having the lowest average of extra yards per successful run (3.9).

One hook Hester can hang his hat on is the fact when he does fail to have a successful run, he only does so by an average of 2.6 yards, but even if he does so, his hat will only have a tenuous hold on the hook. Part of the reason why he fails by so little is he, unlike his fellow running backs, is not asked to run in many long yardage situations almost as if the LSU coaches are actively seeking to keep Hester from embarrassment. Perhaps they do not want to expose too many of his deficiencies.

If given the chance to be in charge of who rushes for LSU in the future, I would certainly take carries away from Hester and give them to Keiland Williams and Charles Scott. Then I would not have to worry about trying to figure out how my team is going to win another close game.

Success Rate is borrowed from Football Outsiders and is as follows: 40% of needed yardage on 1st down; 60% of needed yardage on 2nd down; 100% of needed yardage on 3rd/4th downs. My own twist is that when a team goes for it on 4th down, I count 80% of needed yardage on the previous 3rd down.