Still Some Value In Lidge
Philadelphia Phillies relief pitcher Brad Lidge has been a disappointment to the sport of baseball over the last several months on a couple of levels. The first level is a fairly obvious one; during the 2009 regular season, Lidge failed to garner a save in eleven of his forty-two save opportunities. For a supposedly elite closer, that is simply inexcusable. Closers are supposed to be the relief pitcher a team can put the most trust in; they give the team confidence that they can get three outs before sacrificing the lead. Lidge betrayed that trust and has left the Philadelphia Phillies in the precarious position of not having a reliable closer entering the postseason.
The second level of disappointment Lidge has been responsible for is the way he Jedi-mind tricked the Philadelphia Phillies into giving him a three-year, $37.5 million contract extension in the middle of the 2008 season. I say that Lidge tricked the Phillies into doing so because I do not want to believe the Phillies would give such a large amount of money for a player who is not only not even elite at his position, but whose career is the epitome of inconsistency. Instead, I choose to believe that the Philadelphia Phillies realize that closer is the most fungible and unreliable position in the sport of baseball. Success in one year from a closer is no guarantee of success in the following year. Except for a couple of closers playing in the sport today, Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon, there is no one else a team should lock up for more than one to two years at a time.
Still, there is some value left to be found in Brad Lidge in the upcoming postseason, value the Phillies can squeeze out like the last little bit of toothpaste left in the tube. However, they cannot think of Lidge like the closer they are paying him to be. Instead, Lidge should be looked at like an old black and white television set that relies on antennas to acquire reception. When the antennas are in the perfect position and the weather outside is clear, the reception will come in crystal clear. Any variation on that will produce only static. For Lidge, the perfect position for his antennas is saving games where he has at least a three-run lead in the ninth inning.
Saves can be broken down into three categories; there are the three-run saves, the two-run saves, and the one-run save. During the regular season, Lidge had fourteen three-run save opportunities, thirteen two-run save opportunities, and fifteen one-run save opportunities. As the pressure mounted, there was an indirect correlation with how Lidge performed.
In three-run save opportunities, Lidge pitched the best he did all season. He had a 3.66 fielding-independent ERA, 4.00 K/BB ratio, 1.38 HR/9 IP and only allowed batters to hit .269 BA/.321 OBP/.423 SLG/.250 GPA. While those numbers do not top his best seasons, they are a sight better than what he did when the lead was not as large. During two-run save opportunities, he had a 5.42 fielding-independent ERA, 2.43 K/BB ratio, 2.31 HR/9 IP, and .256 BA/.353 OBP/.512 SLG/.287 GPA. Lidge's numbers increased and decreased in all the wrong categories. Then there are Lidge's one-run save opportunities. In those, the only thing that would have classified him as a major league pitcher is his paycheck. His fielding-independent ERA was an abominable 7.33, his K/BB ratio was only 1.08, 2.23 HR/9 IP, and every hitter who came up to plate turned into a MVP as evidenced by his allowing batters to hit .386 BA/.486 OBP/.596 SLG/.368 GPA.
As his statistics suggest, the Phillies need to put Lidge in the least pressure-packed situations if they want him to perform adequately. This does not necessarily mean hiding him in games where the Phillies are being blown out, but he does need to pitch with a sizable lead. Also, it is important to remember no matter how effective Lidge may look under the circumstances I have outlined, the Phillies should not trust him again when the game is truly on the line. There is still some value left in Lidge, but there is not that much.
The second level of disappointment Lidge has been responsible for is the way he Jedi-mind tricked the Philadelphia Phillies into giving him a three-year, $37.5 million contract extension in the middle of the 2008 season. I say that Lidge tricked the Phillies into doing so because I do not want to believe the Phillies would give such a large amount of money for a player who is not only not even elite at his position, but whose career is the epitome of inconsistency. Instead, I choose to believe that the Philadelphia Phillies realize that closer is the most fungible and unreliable position in the sport of baseball. Success in one year from a closer is no guarantee of success in the following year. Except for a couple of closers playing in the sport today, Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon, there is no one else a team should lock up for more than one to two years at a time.
Still, there is some value left to be found in Brad Lidge in the upcoming postseason, value the Phillies can squeeze out like the last little bit of toothpaste left in the tube. However, they cannot think of Lidge like the closer they are paying him to be. Instead, Lidge should be looked at like an old black and white television set that relies on antennas to acquire reception. When the antennas are in the perfect position and the weather outside is clear, the reception will come in crystal clear. Any variation on that will produce only static. For Lidge, the perfect position for his antennas is saving games where he has at least a three-run lead in the ninth inning.
Saves can be broken down into three categories; there are the three-run saves, the two-run saves, and the one-run save. During the regular season, Lidge had fourteen three-run save opportunities, thirteen two-run save opportunities, and fifteen one-run save opportunities. As the pressure mounted, there was an indirect correlation with how Lidge performed.
In three-run save opportunities, Lidge pitched the best he did all season. He had a 3.66 fielding-independent ERA, 4.00 K/BB ratio, 1.38 HR/9 IP and only allowed batters to hit .269 BA/.321 OBP/.423 SLG/.250 GPA. While those numbers do not top his best seasons, they are a sight better than what he did when the lead was not as large. During two-run save opportunities, he had a 5.42 fielding-independent ERA, 2.43 K/BB ratio, 2.31 HR/9 IP, and .256 BA/.353 OBP/.512 SLG/.287 GPA. Lidge's numbers increased and decreased in all the wrong categories. Then there are Lidge's one-run save opportunities. In those, the only thing that would have classified him as a major league pitcher is his paycheck. His fielding-independent ERA was an abominable 7.33, his K/BB ratio was only 1.08, 2.23 HR/9 IP, and every hitter who came up to plate turned into a MVP as evidenced by his allowing batters to hit .386 BA/.486 OBP/.596 SLG/.368 GPA.
As his statistics suggest, the Phillies need to put Lidge in the least pressure-packed situations if they want him to perform adequately. This does not necessarily mean hiding him in games where the Phillies are being blown out, but he does need to pitch with a sizable lead. Also, it is important to remember no matter how effective Lidge may look under the circumstances I have outlined, the Phillies should not trust him again when the game is truly on the line. There is still some value left in Lidge, but there is not that much.
Labels: MLB
posted by David at
12:17 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home