Carson Palmer Is Vastly Overestimating His Worth
It takes two to tango is an idiom that can extended to the world of sports trades. Just because a team wishes to trade away a player or a player wishes to be traded away does not guarantee there will be a second party willing to facilitate the transaction especially if that player is in the midst of a decline in ability, a fact with which Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer would do well to familiarize himself.
Before Palmer demanded a trade from the Cincinnati Bengals, the best thing he could have done was to perform an honest assessment of his career. If he had, here is what he would have found.
After a good start to his career, the wheels started coming off in Palmer's injury-truncated 2008 season. Even before Palmer was diagnosed with a partially torn ligament and tendon in his elbow, he was on his way to having a disappointing year.
In those four games, Palmer completed only 58.1 percent of his passes, gained 5.7 yards per pass attempt, gained 4.7 adjusted yards per pass attempt, gained 4.7 net yards per pass attempt, gained 3.9 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, threw three touchdowns (2.3 touchdown percentage) to four interceptions (3.1 interception percentage), and was sacked 11 times (7.9 sack percentage).
Unfortunately for Palmer, those four games were not just a minor hiccup in his career before he returned to his previous high levels of production. Instead, they represented the beginning of a downward spiral in Palmer's play.
Including that 2008 season with the following 2009 and 2010 seasons demonstrates that Palmer is but a shell of the quarterback he once was. In those seasons in games where he was the primary quarterback, games in which he either threw the most passes or threw for the most passing yards per the Bengals, Palmer managed to complete just 60.6 percent of his passes, gained 6.5 yards per pass attempt, gained 6.0 adjusted yards per pass attempt, gained 5.8 net yards per pass attempt, gained 5.2 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, threw 51 touchdowns (4.2 touchdown percentage) to 38 interceptions (3.1 interception percentage), and was sacked 66 times (5.1 sack percentage).
Those numbers measure up poorly to what he did from 2004-2007 where as the Bengals' primary quarterback, Palmer completed 64.1 percent of his passes, gained 7.3 yards per pass attempt, gained 6.9 adjusted yards per pass attempt, gained 6.7 net yards per pass attempt, gained 6.3 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, threw 104 touchdowns (5.1 touchdown percentage) to 63 interceptions (3.1 interception percentage), and was sacked 97 times (4.6 sack percentage).
Compared to how he performed from 2004-2007, since then, Palmer has been a statistically significantly worse quarterback in terms of completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, adjusted yards per pass attempt, net yards per pass attempt, and adjusted net yards per pass attempt. He has also performed worse in his touchdown percentage and sack percentage.
That sort of precipitous drop-off in production should make Palmer unpalatable to any team interested in winning a high percentage of games and being a championship contender.
If Palmer had had just one down year, that could be forgiven and he could still be regarded as a quarterback a team would wish to have on its roster, but with each pass he has thrown since the 2008 season began, Palmer has made it obvious that he is no longer capable of elite quarterback play.
Expecting him to experience an incredible turnaround and return to the form he had from 2004-2007 is expecting too much, but his decline is only one stumbling block standing in the way of a trade.
His contract is another. Palmer is due to be paid $11.5 million next season and it is unlikely he would take a pay cut, thereby making Palmer the perfect example of the ultimate undesirable player. Not only is he in serious decline from where his career began, but he is still being paid like the franchise quarterback he no longer is.
Why Palmer thinks that at the stage in his career when he is playing his worst football he would be desirable to another team is perplexing. Any team interested in acquiring a below-average quarterback can certainly do so for a fraction of the cost and without giving up any draft picks. Trading for Carson Palmer to accomplish such a goal is unnecessary.
Before Palmer demanded a trade from the Cincinnati Bengals, the best thing he could have done was to perform an honest assessment of his career. If he had, here is what he would have found.
After a good start to his career, the wheels started coming off in Palmer's injury-truncated 2008 season. Even before Palmer was diagnosed with a partially torn ligament and tendon in his elbow, he was on his way to having a disappointing year.
In those four games, Palmer completed only 58.1 percent of his passes, gained 5.7 yards per pass attempt, gained 4.7 adjusted yards per pass attempt, gained 4.7 net yards per pass attempt, gained 3.9 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, threw three touchdowns (2.3 touchdown percentage) to four interceptions (3.1 interception percentage), and was sacked 11 times (7.9 sack percentage).
Unfortunately for Palmer, those four games were not just a minor hiccup in his career before he returned to his previous high levels of production. Instead, they represented the beginning of a downward spiral in Palmer's play.
Including that 2008 season with the following 2009 and 2010 seasons demonstrates that Palmer is but a shell of the quarterback he once was. In those seasons in games where he was the primary quarterback, games in which he either threw the most passes or threw for the most passing yards per the Bengals, Palmer managed to complete just 60.6 percent of his passes, gained 6.5 yards per pass attempt, gained 6.0 adjusted yards per pass attempt, gained 5.8 net yards per pass attempt, gained 5.2 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, threw 51 touchdowns (4.2 touchdown percentage) to 38 interceptions (3.1 interception percentage), and was sacked 66 times (5.1 sack percentage).
Those numbers measure up poorly to what he did from 2004-2007 where as the Bengals' primary quarterback, Palmer completed 64.1 percent of his passes, gained 7.3 yards per pass attempt, gained 6.9 adjusted yards per pass attempt, gained 6.7 net yards per pass attempt, gained 6.3 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, threw 104 touchdowns (5.1 touchdown percentage) to 63 interceptions (3.1 interception percentage), and was sacked 97 times (4.6 sack percentage).
Compared to how he performed from 2004-2007, since then, Palmer has been a statistically significantly worse quarterback in terms of completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, adjusted yards per pass attempt, net yards per pass attempt, and adjusted net yards per pass attempt. He has also performed worse in his touchdown percentage and sack percentage.
That sort of precipitous drop-off in production should make Palmer unpalatable to any team interested in winning a high percentage of games and being a championship contender.
If Palmer had had just one down year, that could be forgiven and he could still be regarded as a quarterback a team would wish to have on its roster, but with each pass he has thrown since the 2008 season began, Palmer has made it obvious that he is no longer capable of elite quarterback play.
Expecting him to experience an incredible turnaround and return to the form he had from 2004-2007 is expecting too much, but his decline is only one stumbling block standing in the way of a trade.
His contract is another. Palmer is due to be paid $11.5 million next season and it is unlikely he would take a pay cut, thereby making Palmer the perfect example of the ultimate undesirable player. Not only is he in serious decline from where his career began, but he is still being paid like the franchise quarterback he no longer is.
Why Palmer thinks that at the stage in his career when he is playing his worst football he would be desirable to another team is perplexing. Any team interested in acquiring a below-average quarterback can certainly do so for a fraction of the cost and without giving up any draft picks. Trading for Carson Palmer to accomplish such a goal is unnecessary.
Labels: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals, NFL
posted by David at
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