Carson Palmer Is Vastly Overestimating His Worth

It takes two to tango is an idiom that can extended to the world of sports trades. Just because a team wishes to trade away a player or a player wishes to be traded away does not guarantee there will be a second party willing to facilitate the transaction especially if that player is in the midst of a decline in ability, a fact with which Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer would do well to familiarize himself.

Before Palmer demanded a trade from the Cincinnati Bengals, the best thing he could have done was to perform an honest assessment of his career. If he had, here is what he would have found.

After a good start to his career, the wheels started coming off in Palmer's injury-truncated 2008 season. Even before Palmer was diagnosed with a partially torn ligament and tendon in his elbow, he was on his way to having a disappointing year.

In those four games, Palmer completed only 58.1 percent of his passes, gained 5.7 yards per pass attempt, gained 4.7 adjusted yards per pass attempt, gained 4.7 net yards per pass attempt, gained 3.9 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, threw three touchdowns (2.3 touchdown percentage) to four interceptions (3.1 interception percentage), and was sacked 11 times (7.9 sack percentage).

Unfortunately for Palmer, those four games were not just a minor hiccup in his career before he returned to his previous high levels of production. Instead, they represented the beginning of a downward spiral in Palmer's play.

Including that 2008 season with the following 2009 and 2010 seasons demonstrates that Palmer is but a shell of the quarterback he once was. In those seasons in games where he was the primary quarterback, games in which he either threw the most passes or threw for the most passing yards per the Bengals, Palmer managed to complete just 60.6 percent of his passes, gained 6.5 yards per pass attempt, gained 6.0 adjusted yards per pass attempt, gained 5.8 net yards per pass attempt, gained 5.2 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, threw 51 touchdowns (4.2 touchdown percentage) to 38 interceptions (3.1 interception percentage), and was sacked 66 times (5.1 sack percentage).

Those numbers measure up poorly to what he did from 2004-2007 where as the Bengals' primary quarterback, Palmer completed 64.1 percent of his passes, gained 7.3 yards per pass attempt, gained 6.9 adjusted yards per pass attempt, gained 6.7 net yards per pass attempt, gained 6.3 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, threw 104 touchdowns (5.1 touchdown percentage) to 63 interceptions (3.1 interception percentage), and was sacked 97 times (4.6 sack percentage).

Compared to how he performed from 2004-2007, since then, Palmer has been a statistically significantly worse quarterback in terms of completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, adjusted yards per pass attempt, net yards per pass attempt, and adjusted net yards per pass attempt. He has also performed worse in his touchdown percentage and sack percentage.

That sort of precipitous drop-off in production should make Palmer unpalatable to any team interested in winning a high percentage of games and being a championship contender.

If Palmer had had just one down year, that could be forgiven and he could still be regarded as a quarterback a team would wish to have on its roster, but with each pass he has thrown since the 2008 season began, Palmer has made it obvious that he is no longer capable of elite quarterback play.

Expecting him to experience an incredible turnaround and return to the form he had from 2004-2007 is expecting too much, but his decline is only one stumbling block standing in the way of a trade.

His contract is another. Palmer is due to be paid $11.5 million next season and it is unlikely he would take a pay cut, thereby making Palmer the perfect example of the ultimate undesirable player. Not only is he in serious decline from where his career began, but he is still being paid like the franchise quarterback he no longer is.

Why Palmer thinks that at the stage in his career when he is playing his worst football he would be desirable to another team is perplexing. Any team interested in acquiring a below-average quarterback can certainly do so for a fraction of the cost and without giving up any draft picks. Trading for Carson Palmer to accomplish such a goal is unnecessary.

Sam Bradford Does Not Deserve AP Offensive Rookie Of The Year Honors

Like with so many other end of the season awards, the AP voters got it terribly wrong when they gave St. Louis Rams quarterback Sam Bradford their Rookie of the Year award. That Bradford won is bad enough, but that he won in such a landslide with 44 out of a possible 50 votes shows an excruciatingly high level of ignorance from the AP voters.

Based on Bradford's college career, eventually he will be a star NFL quarterback, but that time was definitely not in the 2010 season. In the regular season that just ended, Bradford was one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL by multiple measures.

According to Football Outsiders, of the 48 quarterbacks who attempted at least 100 passes in 2010, Bradford ranked 34th in DYAR, which measures total value, with 81 DYAR and 34th in DVOA, which measures value per play, with a -9.1 percent DVOA.

Bradford's negative DVOA had everything to do with his pathetically low 5.95 yards per pass attempt. Not only did Michael Vick and Jamaal Charles have higher yards per rush averages, 6.8 and 6.4 respectively, but of the 31 qualifying NFL quarterbacks, those who attempted at least 14 pass attempts per team's game, Bradford ranked 30th in yards per pass attempt. Only Jimmy Clausen of the Carolina Panthers was worse.

Bradford's Rookie of the Year candidacy was further weakened by the fact he was not even the best rookie quarterback to play in 2010. Even the most ardent Bradford supporter has to admit that Bradford could not possibly be the best rookie in the NFL if he was not even the best rookie playing his position.

Cleveland Browns quarterback Colt McCoy was superior to Bradford in both total value with 235 DYAR and value per play with a 3.7 percent DVOA. The advantages McCoy holds in those two statistics become even greater when one remembers he appeared in eight fewer games and threw 380 fewer passes (246 to 626) than did Bradford; Football Outsiders count sacks and aborted snaps as passes in addition to regular pass attempts.

Even with 60.7 percent fewer pass attempts, McCoy's quarterbacking was still more valuable than Bradford's.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Williams, who received four of the six votes Bradford did not get, was also unworthy of his Rookie of the Year votes because he was outplayed by a fellow rookie wide receiver.

Colt McCoy's former college teammate, current Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Jordan Shipley, had more total value than Williams with 156 DYAR compared to Williams' 65 DYAR and more value per play with 14.1 percent DVOA to Williams' -6.6 percent DVOA.

Shipley put up those more impressive numbers despite being targeted for 54, or 42.7 percent, fewer passes than Williams (74 to 128).

The true Rookie of the Year was New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski was more than just a great rookie. He was the second-most productive tight end in the entire NFL in total value with 249 DYAR and the third-most productive tight end in value per play with 53.2 percent DVOA. Only San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates had more total value, and only Antonio Gates and Green Bay Packers tight end Jermichael Finley had more value per play.

Additionally, having Gronkowski on the field made Tom Brady a better quarterback. Gronkowski's dominant play this season is what one should really be looking for when choosing a Rookie of the Year, and the award should be his.

The fact that the AP voters voted for two rookies, Sam Bradford and Mike Williams, who were completely unworthy of them while at the same time completely ignoring the one player, Rob Gronkowski, who most deserved the Rookie of the Year award essentially eliminates all credibility of the honor this season.