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Just The Sports: Mark Sanchez, Kurt Warner More Clutch In The Playoffs Than Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger

Just The Sports

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Mark Sanchez, Kurt Warner More Clutch In The Playoffs Than Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger

Being clutch is the most prized attribute an athlete can possess, and nowhere is being clutch rated more highly than in the postseason. For the purposes of this article, being clutch in the playoffs is measured by how well a quarterback performs in the postseason relative to how he performs in the regular season.

Those quarterbacks who have come up short of their regular season production in games as primary quarterback, games in which they either attempted the most passes or threw for the most yards for their respective teams, will be considered the least clutch while the quarterbacks who have done the best job of raising their level of play in the playoffs and outperforming their regular season output will be defined as the most clutch.

Despite owning three Super Bowl Rings, New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is the least playoff clutch of the eight quarterbacks I examined. When he has appeared in the playoffs, Brady has become 2.4 percent worse in completion percentage (from 63.7 percent to 62.2 percent), 12.2 percent worse in yards per pass attempt (from 7.4 to 6.5), 16.0 percent worse in adjusted yards per pass attempt (from 7.5 to 6.3), 13.4 percent worse in net yards per pass attempt (from 6.7 to 5.8), 17.6 percent worse in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (from 6.8 to 5.6), 10.3 percent worse in yards per completion (from 11.6 to 10.4), and 21.4 percent worse in touchdown percentage (from 5.6 percent to 4.4 percent).

Additionally, Brady has a 4.5 percent higher interception percentage in the postseason (from 2.2 percent to 2.3 percent).

Brady has performed so poorly in the playoffs compared to his regular season production that the differences between his yards per pass attempt, net yards per pass attempt, adjusted net yards per pass attempt and yards per completion are all statistically significant.

Based on his overall play in the playoffs, Brady does not deserve to receive any sort of extra credit for being a clutch quarterback. If anything, he deserves criticism on that front instead because he is not the caliber of playoff quarterback many may believe he is.

Philadelphia Eagles fans should be not be surprised to find that former quarterback Donovan McNabb is the seventh most playoff clutch quarterback of the eight I examined. For his career, McNabb has not been a great regular-season quarterback, and he gets even worse in the playoffs.

In the playoffs, McNabb undergoes a .2 percent decrease in completion percentage (from 59.2 percent to 59.1 percent), a 7.1 percent decrease in yards per pass attempt (from 7.0 to 6.5), a 13.0 percent decrease in adjusted yards per pass attempt (from 6.9 to 6.0), a 9.8 percent decrease in net yards per pass attempt (from 6.1 to 5.5), a 15.0 percent decrease in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (from 6.0 to 5.1), a 6.8 percent decrease in yards per completion (from 11.8 to 11.0), a 6.7 percent decrease in touchdown percentage (from 4.5 percent to 4.2 percent), a 38.1 percent increase in interception percentage (from 2.1 percent to 2.9 percent), and an 11.6 percent increase in sack percentage (from 6.9 percent to 7.7 percent).

Exacerbating the problem that his passes by themselves already have less value in the playoffs, McNabb also has a problem with an increased number of interceptions thrown and sacks taken, further weakening the value of his passes. It is no wonder the Eagles lost three straight NFC Championship games with McNabb as quarterback with the way in which he has underperformed in the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is an interesting case when it comes to being clutch in the playoffs. Compared to his regular season performances, when Roethlisberger appears in the playoffs, he experiences a 3.3 percent decrease in completion percentage (from 63.3 percent to 61.2 percent), a 3.7 percent decrease (from 8.1 to 7.8), an 11.7 percent decrease in adjusted yards per pass attempt (7.7 to 6.8), a 1.5 percent decrease in net yards per pass attempt (from 6.8 to 6.7), a 9.4 percent decrease in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (from 6.4 to 5.8), a 1.9 percent decrease in touchdown percentage (from 5.2 percent to 5.1 percent), a 38.7 percent increase in interception percentage, and a 12.4 percent decrease in sack percentage (from 8.9 percent to 7.8 percent).

Even though Roethlisberger is still an above-average quarterback in the playoffs, based on what he has done in the regular season, he cannot be considered clutch under the aforementioned criterion.

The main problem Roethlisberger has in the playoffs, avoiding interceptions, reared its ugly head during Super Bowl XLV and is a huge reason why the Steelers lost. If he can ever figure out his interception problem, Roethlisberger will be a lot more clutch in the playoffs.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning may have two fewer Super Bowl rings than Brady, but he can at least rest easy at night knowing he does not struggle in the playoffs as Brady does. Still, Manning does struggle somewhat.

In the playoffs, Manning has a 2.7 percent worse completion percentage (from 64.9 percent to 63.1 percent), 1.3 percent lower yards per pass attempt (from 7.6 to 7.5), 5.3 percent lower adjusted yards per pass attempt (from 7.5 to 7.1), 2.8 percent lower net yards per pass attempt (from 7.2 to 7.0), 5.7 percent lower adjusted net yards per pass attempt (from 7.0 to 6.6), 1.7 percent higher yards per completion (from 11.7 to 11.9), 27.3 percent lower touchdown percentage (from 5.5 percent to 4.0 percent), 7.1 percent lower interception percentage (from 2.8 percent to 2.6 percent), and a 9.7 percent higher sack percentage (from 3.1 percent to 3.4 percent).

For whatever reason, Manning has found it immensely difficult to throw touchdown passes in the playoffs, and that more than anything is the reason he is not more highly regarded as a playoff quarterback. Otherwise, his playoff statistics are not that far off from his regular season statistics.

Brett Favre is the first of the eight quarterbacks whose play largely improved in the playoffs. In the playoffs, Favre experienced a 1.9 percent decrease in completion percentage (from 62.0 percent to 60.8 percent), a 4.2 percent increase in yards per pass attempt (from 7.1 to 7.4), a 3.0 percent increase in adjusted yards per pass attempt (from 6.6 to 6.8), a 6.3 percent increase in net yards per pass attempt (from 6.4 to 6.8), a 3.3 percent increase in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (from 6.0 to 6.2), a 7.0 percent increase in yards per completion (from 11.4 to 12.2), a 12.0 percent increase in touchdown percentage (from 5.0 percent to 5.6 percent), an 18.8 percent increase in interception percentage (from 3.2 percent to 3.8 percent), and a 10.2 percent decrease in sack percentage (from 4.9 percent to 4.4 percent).

Favre's decrease in completion percentage did not matter in the long run as he made up for it with a higher yards per completion average which in turn led to a higher yards per pass attempt average in the playoffs.

It was his increase in interception percentage that truly harmed both Favre and the teams for which he played. The higher interception percentage harmed Favre by decreasing the value of his adjusted passing statistics, and it harmed his teams because on a number of occasions, a Favre interception ended his teams' seasons.

Had Favre just been able to maintain his regular season interception percentage, we probably would have seen him in a couple more Super Bowls.

Favre's successor for the Green Bay Packers, quarterback Aaron Rodgers, has yet to experience any interception-throwing difficulties in the playoffs. In fact, if he can continue on the path he has started in his first five career postseason games, he will be a more clutch playoff quarterback than Favre ever was.

In the playoffs, Rodgers has undergone a 4.8 percent increase in completion percentage (from 64.7 percent to 67.8 percent), an 8.8 percent increase in yards per pass attempt (from 8.0 to 8.7), a 10.8 percent increase in adjusted yards per pass attempt (from 8.3 to 9.4), a 10.0 percent increase in net yards per pass attempt (7.0 to 7.7), a 15.1 percent increase in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (from 7.3 to 8.4), a 4.0 percent increase in yards per completion (from 12.4 to 12.9), a 33.9 percent increase in touchdown percentage (from 5.6 percent to 7.5 percent), a 10.5 percent decrease in interception percentage (from 1.9 percent to 1.7 percent), and a 1.4 percent increase in sack percentage (from 6.9 percent to 7.0 percent).

Rodgers has had his way with opponents in the playoffs and has been an unstoppable passing force in the postseason. The test for him will be in maintaining his clutch playoff play for the rest of his career.

Although Rodgers' playoff career has just begun and still faces the prospect of regression, that is not an issue for the recently retired quarterback Kurt Warner, who will always be a truly fantastic playoff quarterback.

If there is any hesitation among Pro Football Hall of Fame voters to declare Warner a Hall of Fame quarterback, which there shouldn't be considering he was a great regular season quarterback as well, then his performances in the postseason should tip the scales in his favor.

Warner may have lost two of the three Super Bowls in which he played, but that did not keep him from being an incredibly clutch playoff quarterback. In the playoffs, Warner turned in a 1.4 percent higher completion percentage (from 65.6 percent to 66.5 percent), a 7.5 percent higher yards per pass attempt (from 8.0 to 8.6), an 11.8 percent higher adjusted yards per pass attempt (from 7.6 to 8.5), a 12.7 percent higher net yards per pass attempt (from 7.1 to 8.0), a 19.4 percent higher adjusted net yards per pass attempt (from 6.7 to 8.0), a 5.7 percent higher yards per completion (from 12.2 to 12.9), a 31.4 percent higher touchdown percentage (from 5.1 percent to 6.7 percent), a 6.3 percent lower interception percentage (from 3.2 percent to 3.0 percent), and a 33.3 percent lower sack percentage (from 6.0 percent to 4.0 percent).

Yet, even Kurt Warner cannot match the clutch playoff heights New York Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez has reached in his first six postseason games. Sanchez might not be the first name a person thinks of when thinking of clutch playoff quarterbacks, but there is no denying how much better he has been in the playoffs then the regular season. The improvement is astounding.

In the playoffs, Sanchez experiences an 11.2 percent increase in completion percentage (from 54.4 percent to 60.2 percent), a 12.1 percent increase in yards per pass attempt (from 6.6 to 7.4), a 38.2 percent increase in adjusted yards per pass attempt (from 5.5 to 7.6), a 20.7 percent increase in net yards per pass attempt (from 5.8 to 7.0), a 52.1 percent increase in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (from 4.8 to 7.3), a .8 percent increase in yards per completion (from 12.1 to 12.2), a 72.7 percent increase in touchdown percentage (from 3.3 percent to 5.7 percent), a 50.0 percent decrease in interception percentage (from 3.8 percent to 1.9 percent), and a 56.1 percent decrease in sack percentage (from 5.7 percent to 2.5 percent).

If Sanchez could ever translate his postseason statistics to the regular season, then the New York Jets would actually have a real quarterback of the future instead of a ceremonial one.

This is only one way in which to measure a quarterback's clutch playoff proficiency, and along with the surprising fact of how impressive Sanchez's playoff performances have been in relation to his regular season ones, the most important thing one can take away after comparing these eight quarterbacks to each other is just how great a quarterback Kurt Warner was.

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