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Just The Sports

Just The Sports

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Mark Sanchez, Kurt Warner More Clutch In The Playoffs Than Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger

Being clutch is the most prized attribute an athlete can possess, and nowhere is being clutch rated more highly than in the postseason. For the purposes of this article, being clutch in the playoffs is measured by how well a quarterback performs in the postseason relative to how he performs in the regular season.

Those quarterbacks who have come up short of their regular season production in games as primary quarterback, games in which they either attempted the most passes or threw for the most yards for their respective teams, will be considered the least clutch while the quarterbacks who have done the best job of raising their level of play in the playoffs and outperforming their regular season output will be defined as the most clutch.

Despite owning three Super Bowl Rings, New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is the least playoff clutch of the eight quarterbacks I examined. When he has appeared in the playoffs, Brady has become 2.4 percent worse in completion percentage (from 63.7 percent to 62.2 percent), 12.2 percent worse in yards per pass attempt (from 7.4 to 6.5), 16.0 percent worse in adjusted yards per pass attempt (from 7.5 to 6.3), 13.4 percent worse in net yards per pass attempt (from 6.7 to 5.8), 17.6 percent worse in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (from 6.8 to 5.6), 10.3 percent worse in yards per completion (from 11.6 to 10.4), and 21.4 percent worse in touchdown percentage (from 5.6 percent to 4.4 percent).

Additionally, Brady has a 4.5 percent higher interception percentage in the postseason (from 2.2 percent to 2.3 percent).

Brady has performed so poorly in the playoffs compared to his regular season production that the differences between his yards per pass attempt, net yards per pass attempt, adjusted net yards per pass attempt and yards per completion are all statistically significant.

Based on his overall play in the playoffs, Brady does not deserve to receive any sort of extra credit for being a clutch quarterback. If anything, he deserves criticism on that front instead because he is not the caliber of playoff quarterback many may believe he is.

Philadelphia Eagles fans should be not be surprised to find that former quarterback Donovan McNabb is the seventh most playoff clutch quarterback of the eight I examined. For his career, McNabb has not been a great regular-season quarterback, and he gets even worse in the playoffs.

In the playoffs, McNabb undergoes a .2 percent decrease in completion percentage (from 59.2 percent to 59.1 percent), a 7.1 percent decrease in yards per pass attempt (from 7.0 to 6.5), a 13.0 percent decrease in adjusted yards per pass attempt (from 6.9 to 6.0), a 9.8 percent decrease in net yards per pass attempt (from 6.1 to 5.5), a 15.0 percent decrease in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (from 6.0 to 5.1), a 6.8 percent decrease in yards per completion (from 11.8 to 11.0), a 6.7 percent decrease in touchdown percentage (from 4.5 percent to 4.2 percent), a 38.1 percent increase in interception percentage (from 2.1 percent to 2.9 percent), and an 11.6 percent increase in sack percentage (from 6.9 percent to 7.7 percent).

Exacerbating the problem that his passes by themselves already have less value in the playoffs, McNabb also has a problem with an increased number of interceptions thrown and sacks taken, further weakening the value of his passes. It is no wonder the Eagles lost three straight NFC Championship games with McNabb as quarterback with the way in which he has underperformed in the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is an interesting case when it comes to being clutch in the playoffs. Compared to his regular season performances, when Roethlisberger appears in the playoffs, he experiences a 3.3 percent decrease in completion percentage (from 63.3 percent to 61.2 percent), a 3.7 percent decrease (from 8.1 to 7.8), an 11.7 percent decrease in adjusted yards per pass attempt (7.7 to 6.8), a 1.5 percent decrease in net yards per pass attempt (from 6.8 to 6.7), a 9.4 percent decrease in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (from 6.4 to 5.8), a 1.9 percent decrease in touchdown percentage (from 5.2 percent to 5.1 percent), a 38.7 percent increase in interception percentage, and a 12.4 percent decrease in sack percentage (from 8.9 percent to 7.8 percent).

Even though Roethlisberger is still an above-average quarterback in the playoffs, based on what he has done in the regular season, he cannot be considered clutch under the aforementioned criterion.

The main problem Roethlisberger has in the playoffs, avoiding interceptions, reared its ugly head during Super Bowl XLV and is a huge reason why the Steelers lost. If he can ever figure out his interception problem, Roethlisberger will be a lot more clutch in the playoffs.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning may have two fewer Super Bowl rings than Brady, but he can at least rest easy at night knowing he does not struggle in the playoffs as Brady does. Still, Manning does struggle somewhat.

In the playoffs, Manning has a 2.7 percent worse completion percentage (from 64.9 percent to 63.1 percent), 1.3 percent lower yards per pass attempt (from 7.6 to 7.5), 5.3 percent lower adjusted yards per pass attempt (from 7.5 to 7.1), 2.8 percent lower net yards per pass attempt (from 7.2 to 7.0), 5.7 percent lower adjusted net yards per pass attempt (from 7.0 to 6.6), 1.7 percent higher yards per completion (from 11.7 to 11.9), 27.3 percent lower touchdown percentage (from 5.5 percent to 4.0 percent), 7.1 percent lower interception percentage (from 2.8 percent to 2.6 percent), and a 9.7 percent higher sack percentage (from 3.1 percent to 3.4 percent).

For whatever reason, Manning has found it immensely difficult to throw touchdown passes in the playoffs, and that more than anything is the reason he is not more highly regarded as a playoff quarterback. Otherwise, his playoff statistics are not that far off from his regular season statistics.

Brett Favre is the first of the eight quarterbacks whose play largely improved in the playoffs. In the playoffs, Favre experienced a 1.9 percent decrease in completion percentage (from 62.0 percent to 60.8 percent), a 4.2 percent increase in yards per pass attempt (from 7.1 to 7.4), a 3.0 percent increase in adjusted yards per pass attempt (from 6.6 to 6.8), a 6.3 percent increase in net yards per pass attempt (from 6.4 to 6.8), a 3.3 percent increase in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (from 6.0 to 6.2), a 7.0 percent increase in yards per completion (from 11.4 to 12.2), a 12.0 percent increase in touchdown percentage (from 5.0 percent to 5.6 percent), an 18.8 percent increase in interception percentage (from 3.2 percent to 3.8 percent), and a 10.2 percent decrease in sack percentage (from 4.9 percent to 4.4 percent).

Favre's decrease in completion percentage did not matter in the long run as he made up for it with a higher yards per completion average which in turn led to a higher yards per pass attempt average in the playoffs.

It was his increase in interception percentage that truly harmed both Favre and the teams for which he played. The higher interception percentage harmed Favre by decreasing the value of his adjusted passing statistics, and it harmed his teams because on a number of occasions, a Favre interception ended his teams' seasons.

Had Favre just been able to maintain his regular season interception percentage, we probably would have seen him in a couple more Super Bowls.

Favre's successor for the Green Bay Packers, quarterback Aaron Rodgers, has yet to experience any interception-throwing difficulties in the playoffs. In fact, if he can continue on the path he has started in his first five career postseason games, he will be a more clutch playoff quarterback than Favre ever was.

In the playoffs, Rodgers has undergone a 4.8 percent increase in completion percentage (from 64.7 percent to 67.8 percent), an 8.8 percent increase in yards per pass attempt (from 8.0 to 8.7), a 10.8 percent increase in adjusted yards per pass attempt (from 8.3 to 9.4), a 10.0 percent increase in net yards per pass attempt (7.0 to 7.7), a 15.1 percent increase in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (from 7.3 to 8.4), a 4.0 percent increase in yards per completion (from 12.4 to 12.9), a 33.9 percent increase in touchdown percentage (from 5.6 percent to 7.5 percent), a 10.5 percent decrease in interception percentage (from 1.9 percent to 1.7 percent), and a 1.4 percent increase in sack percentage (from 6.9 percent to 7.0 percent).

Rodgers has had his way with opponents in the playoffs and has been an unstoppable passing force in the postseason. The test for him will be in maintaining his clutch playoff play for the rest of his career.

Although Rodgers' playoff career has just begun and still faces the prospect of regression, that is not an issue for the recently retired quarterback Kurt Warner, who will always be a truly fantastic playoff quarterback.

If there is any hesitation among Pro Football Hall of Fame voters to declare Warner a Hall of Fame quarterback, which there shouldn't be considering he was a great regular season quarterback as well, then his performances in the postseason should tip the scales in his favor.

Warner may have lost two of the three Super Bowls in which he played, but that did not keep him from being an incredibly clutch playoff quarterback. In the playoffs, Warner turned in a 1.4 percent higher completion percentage (from 65.6 percent to 66.5 percent), a 7.5 percent higher yards per pass attempt (from 8.0 to 8.6), an 11.8 percent higher adjusted yards per pass attempt (from 7.6 to 8.5), a 12.7 percent higher net yards per pass attempt (from 7.1 to 8.0), a 19.4 percent higher adjusted net yards per pass attempt (from 6.7 to 8.0), a 5.7 percent higher yards per completion (from 12.2 to 12.9), a 31.4 percent higher touchdown percentage (from 5.1 percent to 6.7 percent), a 6.3 percent lower interception percentage (from 3.2 percent to 3.0 percent), and a 33.3 percent lower sack percentage (from 6.0 percent to 4.0 percent).

Yet, even Kurt Warner cannot match the clutch playoff heights New York Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez has reached in his first six postseason games. Sanchez might not be the first name a person thinks of when thinking of clutch playoff quarterbacks, but there is no denying how much better he has been in the playoffs then the regular season. The improvement is astounding.

In the playoffs, Sanchez experiences an 11.2 percent increase in completion percentage (from 54.4 percent to 60.2 percent), a 12.1 percent increase in yards per pass attempt (from 6.6 to 7.4), a 38.2 percent increase in adjusted yards per pass attempt (from 5.5 to 7.6), a 20.7 percent increase in net yards per pass attempt (from 5.8 to 7.0), a 52.1 percent increase in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (from 4.8 to 7.3), a .8 percent increase in yards per completion (from 12.1 to 12.2), a 72.7 percent increase in touchdown percentage (from 3.3 percent to 5.7 percent), a 50.0 percent decrease in interception percentage (from 3.8 percent to 1.9 percent), and a 56.1 percent decrease in sack percentage (from 5.7 percent to 2.5 percent).

If Sanchez could ever translate his postseason statistics to the regular season, then the New York Jets would actually have a real quarterback of the future instead of a ceremonial one.

This is only one way in which to measure a quarterback's clutch playoff proficiency, and along with the surprising fact of how impressive Sanchez's playoff performances have been in relation to his regular season ones, the most important thing one can take away after comparing these eight quarterbacks to each other is just how great a quarterback Kurt Warner was.

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Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Jay Cutler Is Latest Beneficiary Of The Mike Martz Effect

No matter what kind of quarterback a player was before or what kind of quarterback he will be afterwards, while he is playing in Mike Martz's offensive system, he will have the best seasons of his career in terms of yards per pass attempt and yards per completion. The quarterback may very well have career-high seasons in other areas, but the improvements in yards per pass attempt and yards per completion are the most consistent results of playing for Martz.

The Martz Effect first presented itself in the NFL in the career of Kurt Warner. Martz did not entirely make Kurt Warner as Warner went on to have success with other teams in his career, but Warner never reached the heights in yards per completion and yards per attempt for those teams that he did under Martz.

In his 56 games as primary quarterback under Martz, games in which he either attempted the most passes or threw for the most passing yards for the team, Warner posted averages of 8.6 yards per pass attempt and 13.0 yards per completion.

Both of those statistics are statistically significantly better than what he did as primary quarterback for non-Martz offenses where in 74 games, Warner's passes netted 7.6 yards per pass attempt and 11.7 yards per completion.

Playing for Martz, Warner also had his best seasons in terms of touchdown percentage. His touchdown percentage was a statistically significant superior 6.1 touchdown percentage than his 4.7 touchdown percentage playing in other offenses.

However, Warner also had a statistically significant higher interception percentage under Martz (3.8 interception percentage) than he did playing for other coaches (2.6 interception percentage). Since the advantage he holds in touchdown percentage (29.8 percent higher) in lower than the disadvantage he holds in interception percentage (46.2 percent higher), he actually was worse under Martz in his touchdown to interception ratio.

During Warner's tenure as primary quarterback under Martz, there were six games in the 2000 season where Trent Green stepped in as primary quarterback. Even though Green only received those six games as a primary quarterback under Martz, he still put up numbers better than what he did for the rest of his career.

For those six games, Green gained 8.3 yards per pass attempt and 13.8 yards per completion. His yards per attempt average was 10.7 percent better than the 7.5 yards per pass attempt he averaged in his 111 other games as primary quarterback, and his yards per completion average was 11.3 percent better than his 12.4 yards per completion in other games.

Green also threw an amazingly high rate of touchdown passes during those six games, posting an impressive 6.6 touchdown percentage in relief of Warner. That touchdown percentage was 57.1 percent higher than his 4.2 touchdown percentage for the rest of his career.

Despite playing in such a short time span, Green still had his best games under Martz.

Marc Bulger was the next quarterback who benefited from having Martz direct the offense, and like Warner and Green before him, Bulger's yards per pass attempt and yards per completion averages were the best of his career.

During his 42 games as primary quarterback for Martz, Bulger gained 7.8 yards per pass attempt and 12.2 yards per completion, which were statistically significantly better than the 6.7 yards per pass attempt and 11.2 yards per completion he has gained without Martz.

Further cementing the fact that Bulger experienced his best seasons while playing in Martz's offense, his 64.4 completion percentage is statistically significantly better than the 59.7 completion percentage he has had in other offenses as is his 4.6 touchdown percentage statistically significantly higher than his 3.1 touchdown percentage he has posted in non-Martz offenses.

Bulger's 3.5 interception percentage under Martz is also statistically significantly higher than the 2.5 interception percentage he has accumulated in other offenses, but unlike Warner, Bulger still had a better touchdown to interception ratio playing for Martz.

Martz's offensive scheme is so friendly to quarterbacks that even Jon Kitna and Shaun Hill, two quarterbacks who will never be confused for star quarterbacks, also saw improvements while playing for Martz.

For Kitna, the improvement he had in yards per completion was fairly minimal compared to other Martz-coached quarterbacks; the 11.4 yards per completion his passes netted in the 32 games he played as Martz's primary quarterback is only 3.6 percent higher than the 11.0 yards per completion his passes have netted in his 99 other games as primary quarterback in the NFL.

Where Kitna truly excelled under Martz were in a higher completion percentage and a higher yards per attempt average. Kitna's 62.8 completion percentage and 7.2 yards per pass attempt are statistically significantly superior to the 59.2 completion percentage and 6.5 yards per attempt he has produced in his other offenses.

Similarly to Green, Hill played in a limited number of games as Martz's primary quarterback, and in those nine games, he played the best football of his career.

Comparing his time in Martz's system to when he has played outside of it, Hill's completion percentage is 2.3 percent higher (62.8 percent to 61.4 percent), his yards per pass attempt average is 10.9 percent higher (7.1 to 6.4), and his yards per completion average is 8.7 percent higher (11.3 to 10.4). Again, under Martz, a quarterback had his best yards per pass attempt and yards per completion averages.

In his first season playing for Martz, current Martz primary quarterback Jay Cutler has already benefited from the Martz Effect; in his 16 games as primary quarterback for the 2010 season, Cutler's passes gained 7.7 yards per pass attempt and 12.9 yards per completion.

Cutler's yards per pass attempt average under Martz is 6.9 percent higher than the 7.2 yards per pass attempt average he had in his 52 other contests as primary quarterback, and his yards per completion average under Martz is 11.2 percent higher than the 11.6 yards per completion average he had when not playing under Martz.

The rest of the time Cutler spends playing for Martz should result in similar statistics.

With the way in which Martz is able to take any quarterback, regardless of the player's talent level, and elevate his passing statistics, Martz is rightly regarded as one of the preeminent offensive minds in the NFL.

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