best counter

Your Ad Here
Just The Sports: Putting The Cart Before The Horse

Just The Sports

Friday, November 24, 2006

Putting The Cart Before The Horse

Allow me to not so gently burst the bubble of anyone who thinks the Golden State Warriors are anything but pretenders. Of course, that thinking is understandable since the Warriors now have a coach in Don Nelson who has actually experienced success on the NBA level, unlike his predecessor, and because of Nelson's success, the Warriors now have a point guard in Baron Davis who will actually run the plays that the head coach calls. Also, let's not forget their roster is full of athletes who can all jump out of the gym and can even manage to play real basketball every once in a while. It is a very touching formula for success, but it is one that is more illusion than substance.

Underneath the Warriors' 7-5 record is a foundation made of the flimsiest quicksand because they have played a disproportionate number of home games to start the season. In fact, at the start of the day, the nine home games, slated for the Warriors have been the most home games any other NBA team has had this year. They have gone 6-3 in those contests and 1-2 in their three away games and finally it is obvious why in fact no big deal should be made about this start.

However, if that is not enough to convince the skeptical loser, the Warriors also went 7-5 in their first twelve games of the 2005-06 season. Then they fell off the map thanks in large part to a brutal 12-game stretch between December 13-January 3 where they had to go on the road nine times, going 4-5; to their credit, the Warriors went 2-1 in the three games during that period. Since history has always been doomed to repeat itself, the Warriors will be experiencing another brutal stretch, this time eleven games between December 15-Juanuary 3 with nine requiring the Warriors to go on the road leaving only two they will be playing at home. Those eleven games will be the true test of just how good these Warriors will be because they will be forced to play well on the road.

In addition, there is nothing that suggests the 2006-07 Warriors through the first twelve games of the season are any better than the 2005-06 ones were. With Mike Montgomery at the helm, the 2005-06 Warriors, in their first twelve contests, had an offensive rating of 101.9 and a defensive rating of 99.1, giving them an overall efficiency edge of +2.8. This season, the numbers during the same time frame have been 109.9 and 107.3 with an efficiency margin of +2.6 so the Warriors are scoring more than last year, but they are also giving up more. The only thing the 2006-07 Warriors do better than the 2005-06 did in their first twelves games is assist on more baskets, with an assist rate (assists per 100 possessions) of 18.2 this season to 15.6 last season.

I just hope no one gets injured jumping off the Golden State bandwagon during the second half of December.



Post a Comment

<< Home