Kentucky's Freshmen and Upperclassmen Share Fault When The Wildcats Lose

John Calipari's second-least inexperienced team of the last four seasons has lost eight games this year, one fewer than Calipari's teams lost over the three previous seasons, but the reason behind their defeats does not lie entirely with their freshmen class. Kentucky's freshman trio of Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones, and Doron Lamb along with the rest of the Wildcats all see a major decrease in their overall statistics in losses.

Collectively, in relation to how the freshmen perform when Kentucky loses to how they perform when Kentucky wins, the freshmen experience a 15.5 percent decrease in effective field goal percentage (from 56.0 percent to 47.3 percent), an 11.2 percent decrease in true shooting percentage (from 58.9 percent to 52.3 percent), a 17.1 percent decrease in assist percentage (from 16.4 percent to 13.6 percent), a 2.1 percent decrease in turnover percentage (from 14.0 percent to 13.7 percent), a 14.6 percent decrease in offensive rebounding percentage (from 4.8 percent to 4.1 percent), a 5.7 percent decrease in defensive rebounding percentage (from 12.9 percent to 12.2 percent), a 13.2 percent decrease in total rebounding percentage (from 9.1 percent to 7.9 percent), and a 1.9 percent decrease in points per game (from 48.0 to 47.1).

The rest of the team when Kentucky loses undergoes a 13.4 percent decrease in effective field goal percentage (from 53.6 percent to 46.4 percent), a 16.0 percent decrease in true shooting percentage (from 56.9 percent to 47.8 percent), an 8.2 percent decrease in assist percentage (from 8.5 percent to 7.8 percent), a 2.9 percent decrease in turnover percentage (from 13.6 percent to 13.2 percent), a 4.3 percent decrease in offensive rebounding percentage (from 9.4 percent to 9.0 percent), a .7 percent increase in defensive rebounding percentage (14.7 percent to 14.8 percent), a 4.1 percent decrease in total rebounding percentage (from 12.3 percent to 11.8 percent), and a 25.8 percent decrease in points per game (from 31.8 to 23.6).

Although Kentucky's freshman trio have a bigger drop-off in their shooting percentages from the field than the rest of the team, they make up for it with their superior conversion of free throws.

In losses, the rest of the team averages 3.5 fewer free throw attempts than they do in victories. The rest of the team also sees a drop in their free throw percentage from 69.4 percent in wins to 64.9 percent in losses.

On the other hand, the freshman trio might take 1.3 fewer free throw attempts when Kentucky loses, but they raise their free throw percentage from 71.9 percent in wins to 77.4 percent in losses. Due to that improvement, Kentucky's freshman trio are only making .2 fewer free throw attempts per game in losses than they make in wins.

Therefore, when it comes to total shooting, Kentucky's freshman trio do a better job of maintaining their shooting statistics.

The struggle the rest of the team has in maintaining its true shooting percentage has a lot to do with its precipitous decline in points per game. Kentucky's offense is most reliant on the freshman trio for its production, but contributions from the other players are still necessary for the Wildcats to be at their best. When Kentucky does not receive those contributions, especially when the rest of the team averages 8.2 fewer points per game in losses, the team is destined to lose the game because while the freshman are very talented, they cannot do it all by themselves.

When it comes to declines in assist percentage, it goes back to poor shooting from the field and since the freshman trio are the ones who have the bigger drop-off in effective field goal percentage, they are the most at fault in this category because it is impossible to get an assist when a teammate misses the shot.

In rebounding, the freshmen are also responsible for most of the team's drop-off, keeping the team from being as efficient as possible on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball.

Among the freshman trio themselves, each carries responsibility for Kentucky's poor showing in losses.

Brandon Knight's biggest problems are a result of his inferior shooting and assist percentage to turnover percentage ratio in defeats.

Knight gets 21.0 percent worse in effective field goal percentage (from 57.7 percent to 45.6 percent) and 17.0 percent worse in true shooting percentage (from 61.3 percent to 50.9 percent). In turn, due to his inferior shooting in losses, he sees a 10.4 percent decrease in his points per game average (from 18.2 to 16.3).

As a point guard whose value is so closely tied to his shooting numbers, the drop-off of his shooting percentages in losses is most damaging to his production, but his decreased proficiency as a distributor is almost as damaging.

When Kentucky loses, Knight undergoes a 12.8 percent decrease in assist percentage (from 23.4 percent to 20.4 percent) and a 24.2 percent increase in turnover percentage (from 16.1 percent to 20.0 percent). The decrease in assist percentage is forgivable because the whole team shoots so poorly in losses, but the increase in turnovers is unforgivable.

Terrence Jones is the one freshman who is best at maintaining his shooting statistics across wins and losses. He experiences only a 4.9 percent decrease in effective field goal percentage (from 49.0 percent to 46.6 percent) and a 2.1 percent decrease in true shooting percentage (from 52.8 percent to 51.7 percent).

However, he really comes up short with his rebounding numbers. In losses, Jones becomes 5.2 percent worse in offensive rebounding percentage (from 9.6 percent to 9.1 percent), 14.0 percent worse in defensive rebounding percentage (from 22.9 percent to 19.7 percent), and 15.5 percent worse in total rebounding percentage (from 16.8 percent to 14.2 percent).

Doron Lamb does not do much for Kentucky besides shoot and it is his shooting proficiency that leaves him drastically in Kentucky's losses. Lamb experiences a 20.2 percent decrease in his effective field goal percentage (from 63.4 percent to 50.6 percent), a 14.2 percent decrease in his true shooting percentage (from 64.6 percent to 55.4 percent), and a 6.8 percent decrease in points per game (13.2 to 12.3).

If Lamb does not shoot well, he is unable to help the Wildcats and lessens the chances of the team winning.

When the Kentucky Wildcats lose, they do so as a team as each part of the team contributes in some way to the defeat. The true bellwethers for Kentucky's chances of winning a game are how many points the non-freshmen are contributing, how well Knight and Lamb are shooting, and how well Jones is rebounding. Figure those things out and you will be able to know if Kentucky won or lost.

Kentucky Point Guard Brandon Knight Is Unique Among John Calipari's Point Guards

In point guard Brandon Knight, Kentucky head coach John Calipari has a freshman point guard unlike any he has coached starting with Derrick Rose who played for him in the 2007-08 season. However, that does not mean Knight is any less effective than Calipari's other three point guards.

Before Knight, Calipari's three previous incarnations of one-and-done point guards, Rose, John Wall, and Tyreke Evans, were all capable shooters, but none were of the quality of shooter that Knight has been this season.

After last night's uncharacteristically poor shooting effort from the field against Arkansas where he went 8 of 23 yet made up for some of his off-shooting night by going 9 of 9 from the free throw line, Knight's effective field goal percentage dropped from 56.0 percent to 54.5 percent and his true shooting percentage for the season dropped from 59.2 percent to 58.4 percent, but he is still the best shooting point guard of the four.

Rose's 51.7 effective field goal percentage under Calipari comes the closest of the other three point guards to matching Knight's pure shooting numbers from the field and Wall's 56.2 true shooting percentage comes the closest in matching Knight once free throws are added into the equation. Still, there is a pretty sizable gap between their shooting prowess and Knight's.

Evans brings up the rear in terms of shooting with his 48.9 effective field goal percentage and 52.9 true shooting percentage, making him far and away the worst shooting point guard of the four. Evans did not let that keep him from playing like a go-to scorer, though, as according to kenpom.com, Evans took 32.1 percent of his team's shots when he was on the court, which is the highest such percentage of the four.

It is a good thing Knight holds such a great advantage over the other point guards in shooting, too, since he is the least "true" point guard among the four in terms of dishing out assists and avoiding turnovers.

Rose is the best in that aspect of being a point guard with a 30.4 assist rate and 19.1 turnover rate during his tenure as a point guard for Calipari. Wall ranks second with a 34.8 assist rate and 24.0 turnover rate. Even Evans, whose 30.0 assist rate and 21.6 turnover rate under Calipari are nothing special, has a much better ratio than Knight.

Through February 20, Knight was sporting a very underwhelming 22.4 assist rate and 21.4 turnover rate, meaning he is just barely making more assists than turnovers.

Normally, such a low ratio would be the hallmark of an inadequate point guard, but Knight shoots the ball so well he has only been a less effective offensive point guard for Calipari than Rose was. Knight's offensive rating through February 20 was 109.5, a number that is likely to come down after the Arkansas game, is second only to Rose's 111.8 offensive rating for Calipari.

Knight narrowly edges Wall's 108.0 offensive rating and leaves Evans' 101.0 offensive rating far behind in his rear view mirror.

Since Knight's offensive value is so tied up with his shooting percentages, he will need to continue to shoot well to remain such a good offensive player. As long as he is able to do that, Calipari's most unique freshman point guard will keep being one of his most effective.