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Just The Sports

Just The Sports

Monday, May 02, 2011

LeBron James And Not Derrick Rose Was The NBA's MVP

Miami Heat forward LeBron James has proved himself a prophet. By joining Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in South Beach, James predicted that he was eliminating himself from MVP contention, and that is exactly what has happened. Despite being the most valuable player in the league for the third straight season, he will have to watch as his award goes to a much less deserving player in Derrick Rose.

Even though James was unable to duplicate the efficient production of his two previous seasons, seasons which rival Michael Jordan at his best, James was still the best player to step on the court for the 2010-11 NBA season.

James once again led the league in PER (27.3), offensive win shares (10.3), total win shares (15.6), and win shares contributed per 48 minutes (0.244). By every objective statistical measure, James was the MVP and all the voters who elected not to give it to him are putting their complete ignorance on display.

Rose's MVP campaign was so full of erroneous conclusions that it hid the fact he was not even the second-best candidate for the award. Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, and Chris Paul can all claim to have contributed more total win shares to their teams than Rose. Rose drops to eighth in the league when win shares contributed per 48 minutes are factored in.

There was an award that Derrick Rose did deserve, but the voters wrongly gave the Most Improved Award to Kevin Love instead. It was Rose and not Love that improved the most from last season to this one.

Rose experienced a 26.3 percent decrease in his PER (from 18.6 to 23.5) and a 108 percent increase in his win shares contributed per 48 minutes (from 0.100 to 0.208). Love can only boast a 17.4 percent increase in PER (from 20.7 to 24.3) and a 52.2 percent increase in win shares contributed per 48 minutes (0.138 to 0.210). Just like there was no contest between James and Rose as to who was the league's MVP, there was no contest between Rose and Love as to who was most improved.

Although Rose might take the NBA MVP award home with him, it is not rightfully his. Only James is worthy of that title this season.

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Saturday, December 11, 2010

Chris Paul vs. Deron Williams: Ending the Debate Once and For All

Asking who is the best point guard in the NBA is no different than asking in which direction the sun rises or how many amendments are in the Bill of Rights or how many eggs does it take to make up a dozen. There is a single solution to all those questions and the answers are not up for debate. In the case of who the best point guard in the NBA is, the answer is indisputably Chris Paul with no basis for arguing any differently. Every time the question of who is the best NBA point guard is asked and the answer given is not Chris Paul, it is both an insult to Paul and a display of ignorance by the answerer. Since the erroneous answer most often given to the point guard question is Deron Williams, the time has come to show why thinking such is ridiculous.

From the time Chris Paul and Deron Williams entered the NBA in 2005, there has never been a season where Williams put up better total statistics than Paul. True, there have been times where Williams has bested Paul in one category during a season, but Paul always emerged as the superior player when looking at the season as a whole.

In the 2007-08 season, Williams's .595 true shooting percentage and 0.6 block percentage were better than Paul's .576 true shooting percentage and 0.1 block percentage. However, Paul was better than Williams when it came to PER (28.3 to 20.8), offensive rebounding percentage (2.4 percent to 1.4 percent), defensive rebounding percentage (10.3 percent to 8.3 percent), total rebounding percentage (6.2 percent to 4.9 percent), assist percentage (52.2 percent to 43.6 percent), turnover percentage (12.1 percent to 17.7 percent), steal percentage (3.9 percent to 1.5 percent), offensive rating (125 points produced per 100 possessions to 118 points produced per 100 possessions), defensive rating (103 points allowed per 100 possessions to 110 points allowed per 100 possessions), offensive win shares (13.2 to 8.9), defensive win shares (4.6 to 2.3), total win shares (17.8 to 11.3), and win shares per 48 minutes (0.284 to 0.177). Since Paul led the entire league in assist percentage, steal percentage, offensive win shares, total win shares, and win shares per 48 minutes, it is safe to consider that season a win for him over Williams.

Last season, Deron Williams was better than Chris Paul when it came to block percentage (0.5 percent to 0.4) percent, offensive rebounding percentage (2.2 percent to 1.3 percent), offensive win shares (7.4 to 5.7), defensive win shares (3.0 to 1.5), and total win shares (10.3 to 7.3). Unfortunately for Williams, his advantage in win shares is negated by the fact he appeared in 31 more games than Paul. Based on Paul's superior win shares per 48 minutes (0.204 to 0.177), had he played an equal number of games and kept producing at the same rate, there is no question he would have surpassed Williams's totals.

Despite the advantages Williams had over Paul in those categories, Paul still had the better PER (23.7 to 20.6), true shooting percentage (.584 to .574), defensive rebounding percentage (11.9 percent to 10.4 percent), total rebounding percentage (6.5 to 6.4), assist percentage (45.4 percent to 44.5 percent), turnover percentage (13.5 percent to 16.9 percent), steal percentage (2.9 percent to 1.8 percent), offensive rating (122 points produced per 100 possessions to 116 points produced per 100 possessions), and defensive rating (109 points allowed per 100 possessions to 107 points allowed per 100 possessions).

Also, keep in mind their two seasons were only that close in production because last year was an injury-plagued one for Paul. Whenever both are equally healthy, Chris Paul always surpasses Deron Williams in complete production.

This season, Deron Williams is leading Chris Paul and the entire NBA in offensive win shares with 3.2. Chris Paul's retort to that is to lead the NBA in PER (27.0), steal percentage (4.9 percent), total win shares (4.5), and win shares per 48 minutes (.288). Even at Deron Williams's best, Chris Paul is better.

With the exception of block percentage, over their careers, Chris Paul is leading Deron Williams in every advanced statistical category. To understand just how much more valuable Chris Paul has been to his teams than Deron Williams has been to his, remember that Paul leads Williams in career win shares by 23.0 despite playing in 43 fewer games.

Chris Paul is more than just the NBA's best point guard and a superior player to Deron Williams; he should be regarded as one of the two or three best players in the league. Anything less than that is to do him a disservice.

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