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Just The Sports

Just The Sports

Wednesday, March 07, 2012

Kobe Bryant Does Not Deserve To Be In the MVP Race

Los Angeles Lakers head coach Mike Brown meant well when he said that Kobe Bryant deserved to be in the MVP race. No doubt, his comments were probably just a way for him to strengthen the relationship between a first-year head coach and his superstar player, but that does not change the fact his comments were completely erroneous. In no way, shape, or form does Bryant deserve to even have his name mentioned in the MVP discussion unless it is to say that Bryant in no way deserves the MVP.

Yes, Kobe Bryant is currently leading the league in scoring with 28.7 points per game, but he is doing so in such an inefficient manner that it actually precludes him from being considered even the most valuable player on his own team.

Bryant is not leading the NBA in scoring because he is shooting the ball well; he is leading the NBA in scoring because he is taking a lot of shots. In fact, according to Basketball-Reference.com, Bryant has taken the most field goal attempts this season and it is not even close. Bryant has attempted 903 shots this year, which is 155 more than the second-place player, Kevin Durant, has attempted.

To put that extreme difference into context, between first and second in field goal attempts is almost as great as the difference between second and tenth in the same category (157 FGA).

One would hope that the person who is taking the most shots in the NBA would also lead it in scoring, although it is not like Bryant is even leading the league by scoring by that much despite his enormous advantage in the number of shots he hoists up every night. He only has a .6 points per game edge over Durant's 28.1 points per game, underscoring just how inefficient a scorer Bryant has been.

Bryant is attempting all these shots despite the fact he currently has the lowest effective field goal percentage (46.7 eFG%) and true shooting percentage (52.7 TS%) of his career so, in essence, he is hurting the team with all his field goal attempts more than he is helping them.

His shooting woes are so problematic to his performances that Bryant's offensive rating this season of 104 points produced per 100 possessions is his lowest since his rookie season and his win shares per 48 minutes (.157) are the fifth-lowest of his 15-year career and his worst mark in that category since the 2004-05 season.

To suggest Bryant is worthy of being discussed in the MVP race is ludicrous when one considers just how poorly a season he is having compared to other seasons he has had in a career that is frankly absent of many MVP-caliber seasons.

While Kobe Bryant is not even measuring up well to his usual production, when you compare him to the players who truly deserve to be discussed as MVP candidates, he looks even worse.

Using Basketball-Reference's win shares per 48 minutes statistic, which is vastly superior to PER since it does not reward production totals over efficiency, finds that Bryant is not even in the top 20, and he only shows up as 17th in win shares (4.7) because of all the minutes he has played this year.

There is no objective evidence one could use to make the case that Bryant is a possible MVP as everything shows that while he is still better than the vast majority of NBA players, he is not in the upper echelon of players this season.

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Wednesday, February 02, 2011

Los Angeles Lakers Strongest, Boston Celtics Most Susceptible In Back To Back Games

Grinding out back to back games is the most grueling aspect of an NBA season, and performance in back to back games provides an excellent barometer for determining which teams are the most consistently dominant.

When it comes to back to back games, most teams perform much better in one game over the other; sometimes it is the first game and sometimes it is the second. It is extremely difficult to play well on consecutive nights, but the teams who manage to do so are the wheat that has separated themselves from the chaff that is the rest of the NBA.

Of the 16 teams I examined, the eight Eastern Conference and eight Western Conference teams that would qualify for the playoffs if the season ended today, only seven of the teams (Boston Celtics, Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat, Orlando Magic, Los Angeles Lakers, Dallas Mavericks, and New Orleans Hornets) have managed to outscore their opponents per 100 possessions on both nights of their back to back games.

Not all of those seven teams are created equally, though. Very good teams are those who can outscore their opponents by 100 possessions on consecutive nights, but the teams that have the consistent dominance of an elite team are the ones who can perform that feat with no significant drop-off in their performances.

In the Eastern Conference, two teams, the Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls, qualify as the most consistently dominant squads in back to back contests.

The Heat have outscored opponents by 8.5 points per 100 possessions in the first game and by 7.0 points per 100 possessions in the second game. Not only are the Heat handily beating their opponents on both nights, but there is only a difference of 1.5 points per 100 possessions between how they play in back to back games, displaying a high level of consistently excellent play.

The Bulls have also shown themselves to be a consistently elite team in back to back games, although to a slightly lesser extent than the Heat. In their 14 back to back games, the Bulls have outscored their opponents by 5.7 points per 100 possessions in the first game and by 6.9 points per 100 possessions in the second.

While the Eastern Conference is home to the Heat and the Bulls, which are two of the top three NBA teams in back to back games, it is also home to the most Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of all the 16 playoff-bound teams, the Boston Celtics.

Surprisingly, since the Celtics are universally agreed upon to be a championship-caliber team and have the best record in the Eastern Conference with 37 wins and 11 losses, they are the ones with the highest difference between their performances in back to back games, a difference of 13.8 points per 100 possessions. In the first games, the Celtics have outscored their foes by 14.3 points per 100 possessions, but on the second night of back to back games, they are only beating opponents by 0.5 points per 100 possessions.

The Celtics are unbeatable on the first night, but very susceptible to defeat whenever they are having to play their second game in a row. Therefore, no NBA team should fear the Celtics provided the Celtics played just the night before. Under that condition, the Celtics are no better than a .500 team.

Both the Atlanta Hawks and the Orlando Magic are two Eastern Conference teams that also have a difference of more than 10.0 points per 100 possessions between their play in back to back games.

The Hawks have a difference of 12.0 points per 100 possessions between their back to back games, being outscored by 4.4 points per 100 possessions in the first game and outscoring their opponents by 7.6 points per 100 possessions in the second game.

For the Magic, there is a drop-off of 10.2 points per 100 possessions between their back to back games. The Magic outscore their opponents by 11.4 points per 100 possessions in the first contest and only by 1.2 points per 100 possessions in the second. As impressive as the performances in their first games have been, there is a troubling lack of consistency when they have to play the next night.

In the Western Conference, the Los Angeles Lakers are not just the best Western Conference team in back to back games, but they are the best in the NBA in their back to back performances.

The Los Angeles Lakers have outscored their foes by 13.1 points per 100 possessions on the first night of back to back games, second only to the Boston Celtics in first game performances, and have outscored their opponents by 7.7 points per 100 possessions in the second game, second to no one.

For all the criticism heaped upon the Lakers, criticism that only rings true if one is talking about the complete lack of production from the point guard position, they are still elite.

The San Antonio Spurs, which appear elite based on the fact they hold the best record in the NBA this season with a 40-8 mark, are decidedly un-elite in back to back games, placing them squarely in the same boat with the Boston Celtics as a team that is not dominant across all aspects of the game.

In the first games of back to back contests, the Spurs have outscored their opponents by 9.2 points per 100 possessions, but have been outscored by 1.1 points per 100 possessions whenever called upon to play the next day. That difference of 10.3 points per 100 possessions makes the Spurs one of the most inconsistent NBA teams in back to back games, a distinction that certainly tarnishes their stellar record just a bit.

Comfort for the Spurs can be found in knowing that they are not the most inconsistent Western Conference team in back to back games, however. The award for that dubious honor goes to the Utah Jazz with a difference of 12.3 points per 100 possessions between their back to back games. The Jazz are outscored by an astounding 11.4 points per 100 possessions in the first game and manage to just outscore their opponents by .9 points per 100 possessions in the second.

Poor performances in back to back games will not affect the Celtics and Spurs once they reach the postseason, but with seven sets of back to back games left for the Celtics and 10 sets of back to back games left for the Spurs, it could very well play a huge role in deciding seeding in the playoffs and which team receives the ultimate prize of homecourt advantage.

If at the end of the season the Heat or the Bulls sit atop the Eastern Conference and the Lakers have the best record in the Western Conference, it should not be surprising if back to back games are what allow them to overtake the Celtics and Spurs.

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