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Just The Sports

Just The Sports

Friday, May 06, 2011

2011 NFL Draft: Philip Rivers' Big Pass Plays Will Continue With New Target, Vincent Brown

For three straight years San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has led the NFL in yards per pass attempt, and his reign at the top of that passing category will no doubt continue with the drafting of former San Diego State wide receiver, Vincent Brown, in the third round. Of course, Rivers will only be able to benefit from Brown's big play ability if Brown is able to replicate what he did in college football, especially his last two seasons.

Over Brown's collegiate career, he provided a decent amount of value to his San Diego State quarterbacks, but he was not overly impressive in his production by any means.

After Brown's wide receiving statistics, which include his receptions, passes on which he was targeted, and receptions, were removed from San Diego State's quarterbacks' passing statistics, the quarterbacks experienced a .9 percent decrease in completion percentage (from 57.0 percent to 56.5 percent), a 5.5 percent decrease in yards per pass attempt (from 7.3 to 6.9), a 4.7 percent increase in yards per completion (from 12.8 to 12.2), and an 8.3 percent decrease in touchdown percentage (from 4.8 percent to 4.4 percent).

Brown's career numbers are not as impressive as some of the top wide receivers taken in the draft like Jonathan Baldwin, Aldrick Robinson, Torrey Smith, A.J. Green, or Leonard Hankerson, but the Chargers are not interested in what Brown did over his whole career. They want him to do for them what he did over his last two seasons at San Diego State.

Over his last two seasons, which included 20 games, once Brown's wide receiving statistics are removed from San Diego State's quarterbacks' passing statistics, the quarterbacks underwent a 2.3 percent decrease in completion percentage (from 56.8 percent to 55.5 percent), a 12.9 percent decrease in yards per pass attempt (from 8.5 to 7.4), a 10.7 percent decrease in yards per completion (from 14.9 to 13.3), and an 8.8 percent decrease in touchdown percentage (from 6.8 percent to 6.2 percent).

While those fantastic seasons still were not better than the best seasons of Baldwin, Robinson, or Smith, they are still extremely valuable and made Brown the fourth-best wide receiver in the draft in terms of value given to his college quarterbacks.

Since Rivers has already proven so adept at gaining huge chunks of yardage per pass attempt, adding a wide receiver of Brown's caliber, who has elite-level ability in terms of aiding a quarterback in that statistical category, will ensure that the Chargers continue to have one of the most dangerous passing attacks in the NFL.

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Thursday, March 17, 2011

New York Giants QB Eli Manning Has Been Left Behind by Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger

New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning, who was the number one overall pick in the 2004 NFL Draft, is taking the biblical prophecy that the first will be last a little too literally as he has been surpassed by two quarterbacks taken behind him in the first round of the draft.

Both San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers and Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger have proven themselves to be much more proficient quarterbacks than Manning, although they were drafted after Manning, and have created a gap so sizable between themselves and Manning that he will likely never catch up.

In Manning's 110 games as the Giants' primary quarterback, games in which he has either attempted the most passes or thrown for the most yards for the Giants, he has completed 58.1 percent of his passes and gained 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 6.2 adjusted yards per pass attempt, 6.1 net yards per pass attempt, and 5.5 adjusted net yards per pass attempt.

Additionally, Manning has thrown 164 touchdowns (4.7 touchdown percentage) and 120 interceptions (3.4 interception percentage), not the kind of touchdown-to-interception ratio that lends itself to great success.

By themselves, Manning's statistics are extremely unimpressive and they pale in comparison to the point of transparency when compared to how Rivers and Roethlisberger have performed when they have been the primary quarterbacks for their respective teams.

After every game week, the Chargers should make it a point to call up Eli and Archie Manning and thank them for forcing the Chargers to execute a draft-day trade that landed the franchise a truly elite quarterback in Rivers. With Rivers, the Chargers' offense is in much better hands than it would be with Manning.

Over the course of his career, which includes 87 games as primary quarterback, Rivers has been statistically significantly better than Manning in completion percentage (63.3 percent to 58.1 percent), yards per pass attempt (8.0 to 6.8), adjusted yards per pass attempt (8.0 to 6.2), net yards per pass attempt (7.2 to 6.1), adjusted net yards per pass attempt (7.2 to 5.5), touchdown percentage (5.3 percent to 4.7 percent), and interception percentage (2.5 percent to 3.4 percent).

There is no facet of being a quarterback in which Rivers has not been superior to Manning, and across the board, every time Rivers drops back to pass, he will gain at least one more yard than will Manning.

Roethlisberger, who was the third quarterback chosen in the first round of the 2004 NFL Draft, has not distanced himself from Manning as much as Rivers has, but he is still light years ahead of Manning in most statistical categories.

After 111 games as the Steelers' primary quarterback, Roethlisberger has proven himself statistically significantly superior to Manning in completion percentage (63.0 percent to 58.1 percent), yards per pass attempt (8.0 to 6.8), adjusted yards per pass attempt (7.6 to 6.2), net yards per pass attempt (6.7 to 6.1), and adjusted net yards per pass attempt (6.4 to 5.5).

Roethlisberger also possesses a better touchdown percentage (5.2 percent to 4.7 percent) and interception percentage (3.2 percent to 3.4 percent), but not to the level of being statistically significant.

Even Manning's best season, which occurred in 2009 and is a year he has never been able to duplicate, represents a statistical feat that both Rivers and Roethlisberger have reached multiple times.

During 2009, in his 15 games as primary quarterback, Manning completed 62.3 percent of his passes and gained 7.9 yards per pass attempt, 7.7 adjusted yards per pass attempt, 7.1 net yards per pass attempt, and 6.9 adjusted net yards per pass attempt.

Rivers can boast three seasons that are even better than Manning's 2009 campaign while Roethlisberger has also posted three seasons that compare favorably to Manning's career season.

No matter how you slice it, the Giants ended up with the least desirable quarterback among these three.

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